про ученых и модели ...
May. 18th, 2020 12:12 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
o_klyuevaThe UK’s coronavirus lockdown was caused by “the most devastating software mistake of all time, in terms of economic costs and lives lost,” according to a report by a British newspaper.
The essay is referring to computer modelling by Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London that predicted enormous deaths in the UK and elsewhere and led to draconian lockdown measures.
... The Imperial College team published a 20‐ page report on March 16 forecasting that an uncontrolled spread of COVID-19 could cause as many as 510,000 deaths in Britain and as many as 2.2 million deaths in the United States.
... The predictions, which were considerably wide of the mark were the result of radically deficient modeling by software developers David Richards and Konstantin Boudnik ...
... The simulation code was so bad, the writers insist, that they “would fire anyone for developing code like this and any business that relied on it to produce software for sale would likely go bust.”
Imperial’s model “is vulnerable to producing wildly different and conflicting outputs based on the same initial set of parameters,” they state. “Run it on different computers and you would likely get different results. “
Вполне ожидаемый результат. За последние лет пять работы в хайтеке в области «build and release” наблюдала как падает качество софтверных продуктов.
Что касается последнего предложения - вполне могу предположить где и как они напортачили.
The essay is referring to computer modelling by Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London that predicted enormous deaths in the UK and elsewhere and led to draconian lockdown measures.
... The Imperial College team published a 20‐ page report on March 16 forecasting that an uncontrolled spread of COVID-19 could cause as many as 510,000 deaths in Britain and as many as 2.2 million deaths in the United States.
... The predictions, which were considerably wide of the mark were the result of radically deficient modeling by software developers David Richards and Konstantin Boudnik ...
... The simulation code was so bad, the writers insist, that they “would fire anyone for developing code like this and any business that relied on it to produce software for sale would likely go bust.”
Imperial’s model “is vulnerable to producing wildly different and conflicting outputs based on the same initial set of parameters,” they state. “Run it on different computers and you would likely get different results. “
Вполне ожидаемый результат. За последние лет пять работы в хайтеке в области «build and release” наблюдала как падает качество софтверных продуктов.
Что касается последнего предложения - вполне могу предположить где и как они напортачили.
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Date: 2020-05-19 02:48 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-05-19 03:11 am (UTC)